Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services
Director's Office
Social Assistance
Service Delivery Branch
July 3, 2026
MEMORANDUM TO: Ontario Works Administrator
FROM: Colleen Hardie
Director, Social Assistance Service Delivery Branch,
Toronto and West Regions
Casey Palmer
Director, Social Assistance Service Delivery Branch,
Central, East and North Regions
RE: Winter 2026 Social Assistance Caseload Forecast
Enclosed is the Winter 2026 social assistance caseload forecast for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 fiscal years prepared by the Strategic Policy, Insights and Data Division of the Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services.
The Winter 2026 Social Assistance Caseload Forecast uses actual social assistance data and labour market trends up to and including January 2026, and the Ministry of Finance’s Winter 2026 Labour Market Forecast based on labour market data up to and including December 2025. It incorporates the impacts of policy and program changes implemented to date. Note that this is a forecast of what the caseload level would be if assumed economic and policy conditions prevail in the current and next fiscal years.
The document also provides a distribution of the province-wide caseload forecast by Consolidated Municipal Service Manager (CMSM)/District Social Services Administration Board (DSSAB) for planning purposes only. The distribution is based on each CMSM/DSSAB’s recent actual share of the provincial caseload.
I trust you will find this information useful.
Colleen Hardie
Director,
Social Assistance Service Delivery Branch, Toronto and West Program Office
Casey Palmer
Director,
Social Assistance Service Delivery Branch, Central, East and North Regions
Encl.